Kamfanin Cymber Metal Trading Co., Ltd. - hasashen tsakiyar lokaci na kasuwar ƙarfe na aluminum ta duniya 2026-2030

Kamfanin Ciniki na Cymber Metal, Ltd.(wanda daga baya ake kira "Cymber") kwanan nan ya buga taRahoton Hasashen Tsakiyar Lokaci na Kasuwar Aluminum ta Duniyaya shafi lokacin 2026-2030. Rahoton ya kammala da cewa, bayan shekaru biyar na faɗaɗa wadatar kayayyaki cikin sauri wanda aka mamaye tare da bambancin tsari a cikin buƙatar amfani da ƙarshe, kasuwar ƙarfe ta aluminum ta duniya za ta fita daga daidaiton da aka saba da shi a cikin shekaru biyar masu zuwa kuma ta shiga sabon zagaye wanda ke nuna daidaiton buƙata da wadata da sake gina tsarin yaɗuwar farashi.

I. Gefen Samarwa: Rage Rage Sabbin Karin Nauyi, Tsarin Farashi Mai Tsanani A Gaba

Daga shekarar 2021 zuwa 2025, jimillar sabbin ƙarfin aluminum na farko a China, Indiya, Kudu maso Gabashin Asiya, da Gabas ta Tsakiya sun wuce tan miliyan 12 a kowace shekara, wanda hakan ya sa ƙarfin aiki mai inganci a duniya ya kusa tan miliyan 150. Duk da haka, tun daga shekarar 2026, ayyukan da ake iya hasashen za su ragu sosai. Babban wadatar da za a samu za ta takaita ga ƙaramin adadin ayyukan sake farawa ko faɗaɗawa da aka riga aka amince da su, tare da sa ran ƙaruwar ƙarfin aiki na shekara-shekara zai ragu zuwa tan miliyan 1.5-2.5.

A lokaci guda, canjin tsari a matakan farashin makamashi, aiwatar da shi a hukumanceTsarin Daidaita Iyakokin Carbon (CBAM), da kuma zurfafa gyare-gyaren kasuwar wutar lantarki a China zai ƙara yawan kuɗin da ake kashewa a fannin amfani da wutar lantarki. A cewar kiyasin Cymber, kashi 90 cikin ɗari na farashin da ake kashewa a fannin farashin aluminum na farko a duniya bayan 2027 ana hasashen zai ƙaru da kashi 18%–25% idan aka kwatanta da 2024, wanda hakan zai haifar da raguwar daidaiton samar da wutar lantarki gaba ɗaya.

II. Bangaren Buƙata: Bambanci Tsakanin Sassan Gargajiya da Masu Tasowa, Duk da haka Jimillar Juriya Ta Rage

Daga shekarar 2025 zuwa 2030, ana hasashen cewa amfani da karafa na aluminum a duniya zai ci gaba da samun karuwar shekara-shekara (CAGR) na kashi 2.8% zuwa kashi 3.2%, wanda galibi ya samo asali ne daga manyan sassa uku masu zuwa:

1. Sauƙin Sufuri (Motocin Fasinja + Motocin Kasuwanci):
   A ci gaba da amfana daga ci gaba da karuwar shigar sabbin motocin makamashi a duniya, ana sa ran bukatar takardar aluminum alloy, strip, da foil don aikace-aikacen motoci za ta karu a kowace shekara tsakanin kashi 6.5%–7.5%. Ana hasashen cewa jimillar sabbin amfani daga 2023 zuwa 2030 zai kai kimanin tan miliyan 8.5, wanda hakan ya sanya shi babban abin da ke haifar da karuwar bukatar.
2. Tsarin hasken rana da kuma ajiyar makamashi:
   Bukatar firam ɗin aluminum, tsarin hawa, da kuma foil ɗin batir ya ci gaba da ƙarfi, tare da tsammanin CAGR na kusan 5% daga 2026 zuwa 2030. Ci gaban zai bayyana musamman a kasuwannin da ke wajen China.
3. Sassan Gargajiya (Gine-gine, Marufi, Kebul ɗin Wutar Lantarki, da sauransu):
   Ci gaban waɗannan yankuna zai ragu zuwa 1%–2% a kowace shekara, amma babban tushensu zai ci gaba da samar da ingantaccen tallafi na asali.

A jimilla, ana sa ran yawan amfani da ƙarfen aluminum a duniya zai kai tan miliyan 108-112 (daidai da aluminum na farko) nan da shekarar 2030, wanda ke wakiltar ƙaruwar kimanin tan miliyan 18-22 idan aka kwatanta da shekarar 2024.

III. Kayayyaki da Farashi: Zagayen Rufe Hannun Jari Zai Fara a Kwata na Biyu 2026

Kasuwar ƙarfe ta aluminum ta duniya za ta ci gaba da kasancewa a cikin matakin tara kaya har zuwa 2024-2025, inda ake sa ran haɗakar kayayyaki na musayar kuɗi da na waje za su kai kusan tan miliyan 11-12 daidai. Yayin da saurin ƙarin kayayyaki ke raguwa sosai yayin da buƙatar sufuri da sabbin makamashi ke shiga cikin matakin hanzari, Cymber ya yi hasashen cewa kayayyaki na duniya za su canza daga tarin kaya zuwa raguwa tun daga kwata na biyu na 2026, tare da zagayowar cire kayan da ke cikin kaya zai iya ɗaukar har zuwa ƙarshen 2028.

A wannan yanayin, cibiyar nauyi gaFarashin aluminum na LME na watanni 3Ana sa ran zai tashi a hankali daga farashin da ake da shi a yanzu na dala 2,200–2,400 a kowace tan. Ana hasashen matsakaicin farashin zai kasance a tsakiyar shekarar 2027–2028.USD 2,700–3,000 kowace tankewayon. Haka kuma, matsakaicinFarashin tabo a Kudancin ChinaAna hasashen cewa a kasuwannin cikin gida za a samu RMB 19,500-22,000 a kowace tan. Kudin hada-hadar ƙarfe da kuma kuɗin sarrafawa na kayayyakin takarda, tsiri, da foil za su sami ƙarin tallafi a yayin da ake ƙara tsaurara buƙatun samar da kayayyaki.