Cinikin ƙarfe na siminti: hasashen kasuwar jan ƙarfe ta duniya na 2026-2030

I. Babban Ra'ayi: Tagulla na Ci Gaba da Kasancewa a Tashar Bull ta Dogon Lokaci, Amma Sauyin Farashi Zai Ƙaru Sosai

Cymber ya yi imanin cewa kasuwar jan ƙarfe mai kyau daga 2026 zuwa 2030 za ta ci gaba da daidaita daidaito zuwa matsakaicin gibin kuɗi, tare da tsammanin matsakaicin farashin shekara-shekara zai tashi sama kowace shekara a cikin kewayonDalar Amurka $10,800–12,500 kowace tanManyan abubuwan da ke haifar da hakan sun haɗa da:

• Bukatar ƙaruwa mai wahaladaga jarin wutar lantarki da ginin cibiyar bayanai (an yi hasashen yawan ci gaban mahadi na shekara-shekara na 4.8%–5.5%);
• Jinkirin da aka samu wajen kashe jari a yankin hakar ma'adinai, wanda hakan ya haifar da raguwar saurin samar da sabbin kayayyaki ta intanet (haɓakar samar da tagulla a duniya na kawai1.2%–1.8% a kowace shekaradaga 2026 zuwa 2028);
• Takunkumi kan tsarin sake amfani da tagulla a manyan ƙasashe saboda ƙa'idojin muhalli da kuma matsalolin tattarawa, wanda ke haifar da ƙarancin sassaucin maye gurbin da ake tsammani.

A lokaci guda, canjin tattalin arziki da na siyasa zai haifar da karuwar canjin farashi idan aka kwatanta da lokacin 2021-2024. Ana sa ran sauyin farashin kwata-kwata zai kai ga cimma matsaya.18%–25%, ƙirƙirar ƙarin damar yin shinge da kuma damar samun riba ga kamfanoni masu cikakken ikon sarrafa haɗari.

II. Faɗakarwar Haɗari a Mataki-mataki

Daga rabi na biyu na 2026 zuwa rabin farko na 2027, wani lokaci na wucin gadi na rage rashin daidaito tsakanin wadata da buƙata na iya tasowa, wanda galibi ke haifar da:

• Dakatarwa a lokacin da ake cikin kololuwar zagayowar saka hannun jari a hanyoyin samar da wutar lantarki na kasar Sin;
• Raguwar aikin gina cibiyar bayanai a Turai da Amurka;
• An samu ƙaruwar yawan haƙar ma'adinai da aka tsara tun da farko a wasu sabbin ma'adanai a Peru da Chile.

Idan Babban Bankin Tarayya ya fara wani sabon zagaye na rage darajar riba a shekarar 2026, raguwar da aka samu cikin sauri a ma'aunin dalar Amurka zai kara wa darajar kudin jan karfe, wanda hakan zai iya haifar da hauhawar farashi kafin ya koma baya cikin sauri.

Rikicin siyasa ko canje-canjen manufofi a manyan ƙasashen da ke samar da tagulla (misali, gyaran harajin haƙar ma'adinai na Chile ko rikicin wutar lantarki na Zambia) na ci gaba da haifar da haɗarin da ba za a iya mantawa da shi ba game da wadatar kayayyaki da kuma girgizar ƙasa.